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Model Accuracy
HR Spot Accuracy
Track record of our top 10 daily HR picks. Each pick is snapshotted the morning of, graded the next day, and rolled into per-cohort calibration that feeds back into future scoring.
How to read this
HR yes/no props are inherently low hit-rate — even MLB's best homer in only ~25–35% of games, so the market itself typically implies 20–30% hit odds. A well-calibrated model should therefore land around 28–35% hit rate on top-10 picks and 35–45% on top-3, with positive ROI. The goal isn't 70% hit rate (mathematically impossible) — it's beating the market's implied probability so the ROI is positive.
Last 7 days
0.0%hit rate
0 of 0 graded
Last 30 days
22.2%hit rate
2 of 9 graded · -0.16u ROI
All-time
30.6%hit rate
124 of 405 graded · -0.32u ROI
Hit rate by rank
| Cohort | Sample | Hit rate | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 3 | 37/111 | 33.3% | 28.7% | +4.7pp |
| Top 5 | 64/193 | 33.2% | 29.0% | +4.2pp |
| Top 10 | 124/405 | 30.6% | 27.5% | +3.2pp |
| 11–25 | 154/595 | 25.9% | 24.1% | +1.8pp |
Hit rate by score band
| Cohort | Sample | Hit rate | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85+ | 3/3 | 100.0% | 25.3% | +74.7pp |
| 75–84 | 31/86 | 36.0% | 29.9% | +6.2pp |
| 65–74 | 135/454 | 29.7% | 26.2% | +3.6pp |
| < 65 | 109/457 | 23.8% | 23.9% | -0.1pp |
Recent graded picks
| Date | Rank | Player | Matchup | Score | Odds | HRs | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | #1 | Junior Caminero | TB vs CLE | 77 | +409 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-19 | #2 | Victor Mesa Jr. | TB vs CLE | 55 | +660 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-19 | #3 | Jonathan Aranda | TB vs CLE | 66 | +620 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-19 | #4 | Nathaniel Lowe | CLE vs TB | 58 | +760 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-19 | #5 | Jo Adell | CLE vs TB | 61 | +660 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-19 | #6 | Yandy Díaz | TB vs CLE | 59 | +720 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-19 | #7 | Liam Hicks | TB vs CLE | 73 | +1000 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-19 | #8 | Chase DeLauter | CLE vs TB | 62 | +790 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-19 | #9 | Travis Bazzana | CLE vs TB | 50 | +780 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-19 | #10 | José Ramírez | CLE vs TB | 36 | +680 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-18 | #1 | Junior Caminero | TB vs CLE | 74 | +451 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-18 | #2 | Yandy Díaz | TB vs CLE | 59 | +620 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-18 | #3 | Nathaniel Lowe | CLE vs TB | 49 | +940 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-18 | #4 | Jo Adell | CLE vs TB | 62 | +810 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-18 | #5 | Jonathan Aranda | TB vs CLE | 62 | +940 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-18 | #6 | Ryan Vilade | TB vs CLE | 46 | +1000 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-18 | #7 | Chase DeLauter | CLE vs TB | 52 | +970 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-18 | #8 | Liam Hicks | TB vs CLE | 57 | +1220 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-18 | #9 | Travis Bazzana | CLE vs TB | 40 | +940 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-18 | #10 | José Ramírez | CLE vs TB | 24 | +780 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-17 | #1 | Junior Caminero | TB vs CLE | 80 | — | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-17 | #2 | Victor Mesa Jr. | TB vs CLE | 58 | — | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-17 | #3 | Nathaniel Lowe | CLE vs TB | 51 | — | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-17 | #4 | Jo Adell | CLE vs TB | 70 | — | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-17 | #5 | Jonathan Aranda | TB vs CLE | 69 | — | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-17 | #6 | Yandy Díaz | TB vs CLE | 63 | — | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-17 | #7 | Liam Hicks | TB vs CLE | 73 | — | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-17 | #8 | Chase DeLauter | CLE vs TB | 54 | — | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-17 | #9 | Jonny DeLuca | TB vs CLE | 37 | — | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-17 | #10 | Travis Bazzana | CLE vs TB | 42 | — | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-16 | #1 | Junior Caminero | TB vs CLE | 75 | +591 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-16 | #2 | Victor Mesa Jr. | TB vs CLE | 53 | +770 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-16 | #3 | Jo Adell | CLE vs TB | 65 | +740 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-16 | #4 | Jonathan Aranda | TB vs CLE | 64 | +800 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-16 | #5 | Nathaniel Lowe | CLE vs TB | 46 | +1040 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-16 | #6 | Yandy Díaz | TB vs CLE | 57 | +1040 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-16 | #7 | Liam Hicks | TB vs CLE | 67 | +1280 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-16 | #8 | Chase DeLauter | CLE vs TB | 49 | +980 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-16 | #9 | José Ramírez | CLE vs TB | 21 | +750 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-16 | #10 | Patrick Bailey | CLE vs TB | 35 | +1100 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-15 | #1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD vs MIL | 70 | +489 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-15 | #2 | Jackson Chourio | MIL vs LAD | 75 | +556 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-15 | #3 | Jake Bauers | MIL vs LAD | 85 | +589 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-15 | #4 | Mookie Betts | LAD vs MIL | 80 | +670 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-15 | #5 | Will Smith | LAD vs MIL | 65 | +531 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-15 | #6 | Andy Pages | LAD vs MIL | 71 | +700 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-15 | #7 | William Contreras | MIL vs LAD | 73 | +660 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-15 | #8 | Teoscar Hernández | LAD vs MIL | 52 | +680 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-15 | #9 | Brice Turang | MIL vs LAD | 67 | +940 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-15 | #10 | Kyle Tucker | LAD vs MIL | 44 | +680 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-14 | #1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD vs MIL | 61 | +414 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-14 | #2 | Mookie Betts | LAD vs MIL | 72 | +543 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-14 | #3 | Jackson Chourio | MIL vs LAD | 70 | +630 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-14 | #4 | Andy Pages | LAD vs MIL | 80 | +610 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-14 | #5 | Jake Bauers | MIL vs LAD | 70 | +870 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-14 | #6 | Teoscar Hernández | LAD vs MIL | 61 | +520 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-14 | #7 | Will Smith | LAD vs MIL | 48 | +630 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-14 | #8 | William Contreras | MIL vs LAD | 69 | +760 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-14 | #9 | Kyle Tucker | LAD vs MIL | 42 | +730 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-14 | #10 | Freddie Freeman | LAD vs MIL | 36 | +740 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-13 | #1 | Junior Caminero | TB vs CLE | 73 | +350 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-13 | #2 | Victor Mesa Jr. | TB vs CLE | 62 | +650 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-13 | #3 | Jo Adell | CLE vs TB | 61 | +437 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-13 | #4 | Yandy Díaz | TB vs CLE | 57 | +486 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-13 | #5 | Nathaniel Lowe | CLE vs TB | 58 | +600 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-13 | #6 | Jonathan Aranda | TB vs CLE | 61 | +900 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-13 | #7 | Chase DeLauter | CLE vs TB | 62 | +650 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-13 | #8 | José Ramírez | CLE vs TB | 36 | +509 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-13 | #9 | Jonny DeLuca | TB vs CLE | 41 | +880 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-13 | #10 | Travis Bazzana | CLE vs TB | 50 | +780 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-12 | #1 | Junior Caminero | TB vs CLE | 89 | +400 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-12 | #2 | Victor Mesa Jr. | TB vs CLE | 65 | +790 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-12 | #3 | Ryan Vilade | TB vs CLE | 57 | +720 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-12 | #4 | Nathaniel Lowe | CLE vs TB | 48 | +760 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-12 | #5 | Jonathan Aranda | TB vs CLE | 67 | +730 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-12 | #6 | Yandy Díaz | TB vs CLE | 71 | +760 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-12 | #7 | Jo Adell | CLE vs TB | 61 | +850 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-12 | #8 | Chase DeLauter | CLE vs TB | 51 | +970 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-12 | #9 | Jonny DeLuca | TB vs CLE | 45 | +910 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-12 | #10 | Patrick Bailey | CLE vs TB | 37 | +920 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-11 | #1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD vs MIL | 78 | +483 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-11 | #2 | Jackson Chourio | MIL vs LAD | 68 | +563 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-11 | #3 | Max Muncy | LAD vs MIL | 64 | +592 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-11 | #4 | Jake Bauers | MIL vs LAD | 78 | +740 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-11 | #5 | Mookie Betts | LAD vs MIL | 59 | +810 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-11 | #6 | Will Smith | LAD vs MIL | 47 | +650 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-11 | #7 | Teoscar Hernández | LAD vs MIL | 44 | +660 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-11 | #8 | Andy Pages | LAD vs MIL | 56 | +860 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-11 | #9 | William Contreras | MIL vs LAD | 67 | +680 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-11 | #10 | Brice Turang | MIL vs LAD | 61 | +1520 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-10 | #1 | Munetaka Murakami | CWS vs CLE | 85 | +454 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-10 | #2 | Miguel Vargas | CWS vs CLE | 88 | +543 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-10 | #3 | Colson Montgomery | CWS vs CLE | 65 | +559 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-10 | #4 | Jo Adell | CLE vs CWS | 62 | +504 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-10 | #5 | Nathaniel Lowe | CLE vs CWS | 49 | +840 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-10 | #6 | Kyle Teel | CWS vs CLE | 45 | +820 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-10 | #7 | Chase DeLauter | CLE vs CWS | 52 | +680 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-10 | #8 | Andrew Benintendi | CWS vs CLE | 49 | +940 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-10 | #9 | José Ramírez | CLE vs CWS | 25 | +670 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-10 | #10 | Travis Bazzana | CLE vs CWS | 40 | +910 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-08 | #1 | Munetaka Murakami | CWS vs CLE | 79 | +381 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-08 | #2 | Miguel Vargas | CWS vs CLE | 79 | +449 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-08 | #3 | Randal Grichuk | CWS vs CLE | 55 | +571 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-08 | #4 | Colson Montgomery | CWS vs CLE | 60 | +559 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-08 | #5 | Jo Adell | CLE vs CWS | 67 | +557 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-08 | #6 | Nathaniel Lowe | CLE vs CWS | 37 | +780 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-08 | #7 | Angel Martínez | CLE vs CWS | 53 | +840 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-08 | #8 | Chase DeLauter | CLE vs CWS | 40 | +700 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-08 | #9 | José Ramírez | CLE vs CWS | 19 | +610 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-08 | #10 | Brenton Doyle | CWS vs CLE | 33 | +680 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-07 | #1 | Jackson Chourio | MIL vs SD | 76 | +474 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-07 | #2 | Manny Machado | SD vs MIL | 89 | +522 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-07 | #3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD vs MIL | 81 | +398 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-07 | #4 | Jake Bauers | MIL vs SD | 80 | +560 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-07 | #5 | Jackson Merrill | SD vs MIL | 65 | +553 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-07 | #6 | Ty France | SD vs MIL | 80 | +710 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-07 | #7 | William Contreras | MIL vs SD | 74 | +591 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-07 | #8 | Brice Turang | MIL vs SD | 73 | +890 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-07 | #9 | Austin Hays | SD vs MIL | 55 | +710 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-07 | #10 | Christian Yelich | MIL vs SD | 45 | +790 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-06 | #1 | Jackson Chourio | MIL vs SD | 63 | +370 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-06 | #2 | Jake Bauers | MIL vs SD | 69 | +433 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-06 | #3 | Manny Machado | SD vs MIL | 71 | +459 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-06 | #4 | Jackson Merrill | SD vs MIL | 67 | +431 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-06 | #5 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD vs MIL | 63 | +402 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-06 | #6 | Ty France | SD vs MIL | 64 | +610 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-06 | #7 | William Contreras | MIL vs SD | 60 | +512 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-06 | #8 | Brice Turang | MIL vs SD | 65 | +830 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-06 | #9 | Ethan Salas | SD vs MIL | 42 | +1040 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-06 | #10 | Christian Yelich | MIL vs SD | 46 | +820 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-05 | #1 | Ben Rice | NYY vs TB | 86 | +389 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-05 | #2 | Junior Caminero | TB vs NYY | 73 | +405 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-05 | #3 | Luis García Jr. | NYY vs TB | 91 | +517 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-05 | #4 | Spencer Jones | NYY vs TB | 62 | +438 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-05 | #5 | Victor Mesa Jr. | TB vs NYY | 48 | +660 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-05 | #6 | Trent Grisham | NYY vs TB | 70 | +599 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-05 | #7 | Jonathan Aranda | TB vs NYY | 59 | +670 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-05 | #8 | Cody Bellinger | NYY vs TB | 56 | +577 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-05 | #9 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | NYY vs TB | 74 | +630 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-05 | #10 | George Lombard Jr. | NYY vs TB | 36 | +900 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-04 | #1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD vs ATL | 73 | +268 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-04 | #2 | Matt Olson | ATL vs LAD | 69 | +475 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-04 | #3 | Mookie Betts | LAD vs ATL | 66 | +443 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-04 | #4 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL vs LAD | 63 | +529 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-04 | #5 | Teoscar Hernández | LAD vs ATL | 49 | +330 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-04 | #6 | Will Smith | LAD vs ATL | 52 | +377 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-04 | #7 | Michael Harris II | ATL vs LAD | 69 | +585 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-04 | #8 | Drake Baldwin | ATL vs LAD | 64 | +620 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-04 | #9 | Andy Pages | LAD vs ATL | 62 | +463 | 0 | No game |
| 2026-10-04 | #10 | Ozzie Albies | ATL vs LAD | 66 | +670 | 0 | No game |
Model calibration by cohort
Predicted vs actual hit rate per bucket over the rolling 60-day window. The adjustment factor is applied to future picks in that cohort — nudging both the projected probability and the ranking score (clamped 0.6–1.5×, requires ≥30 samples).
| Bucket | Type | Samples | Predicted | Actual | Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wind_calm_or_cross | wind | 131 | 15.1% | 16.8% | 1.11× |
| park_neutral_plus | park | 95 | 15.7% | 15.8% | 1.00× |
| order_3_5 | lineup | 73 | 15.0% | 16.4% | 1.00× |
| platoon_LvsR | platoon | 69 | 15.3% | 21.7% | 1.00× |
| order_1_2 | lineup | 66 | 15.9% | 18.2% | 1.00× |
| score_60_75 | score_band | 63 | 15.5% | 19.1% | 1.00× |
| park_cold | park | 51 | 13.9% | 19.6% | 1.00× |
| platoon_RvsR | platoon | 45 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 1.00× |
| score_45_60 | score_band | 35 | 13.7% | 14.3% | 1.00× |
| score_75_85 | score_band | 34 | 16.6% | 11.8% | 1.00× |
| platoon_RvsL | platoon | 23 | 16.2% | 17.4% | 1.00× |
| wind_out_10plus | wind | 19 | 15.0% | 15.8% | 1.00× |
| platoon_LvsL | platoon | 13 | 15.7% | 23.1% | 1.00× |
| score_0_45 | score_band | 9 | 9.8% | 11.1% | 1.00× |
| score_85_100 | score_band | 9 | 18.0% | 33.3% | 1.00× |
| order_6_7 | lineup | 8 | 12.1% | 0.0% | 1.00× |
| lineup_projected | lineup | 5 | 24.1% | 0.0% | 1.00× |
| wind_in_10plus | wind | 4 | 14.9% | 0.0% | 1.00× |
| park_neutral | park | 4 | 17.0% | 0.0% | 1.00× |
| order_8_9 | lineup | 3 | 8.8% | 33.3% | 1.00× |
| park_hot | park | 3 | 18.3% | 33.3% | 1.00× |